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Trend prediction update for Mexico



Worse not better, and in surprising ways


From my vantage point, Mexican violence is merely trending towards a truly epic level of systemic violence. Despite the sad drumbeat of killings in Mexico chronicled by Frontera List, that nation has yet to experience the savagery that Africa has found itself awash.


The trends I see from the current conditions of Beyond Colombianization, Mexico is the Iraq, the Afghanistan, on our southern border do not indicate that the flow of drugs will be stopped, but rather the opposite. Drugs will continue to flow while criminal groups continue to battle for dominance and the control of the distribution plazas:

  • Criminal group leaders will emerge as defacto commanders of their TAZ (Temporary Autonomous Zone).
  • Those commanders will pacify their zone to a degree that relative signs of order will emerge.
  • Those leaders will then seek political roles.
  • An uncomfortable legitimacy will accrue to the most successful.

Distilling this trend line shows a variation of the terrorist-to-statesman trajectory followed by so many of the established and nascent political figures on the world stage. See Hamas will produce a Prime Minister faster than the Irgun.


My wildcard is the US and various US-based groups. While such groups vary widely in their intent, some would appear to go so far as to support a false flag event against the US with the intent of forcing the legitimate government to move assets into Mexico.


Misreading the patterns


We believe that it is a misleading of the data to believe that:

The government's crackdown "has achieved significant results as far as breaking up the leadership, financial, logistical and operational structures of organized crime"...


The informe [Calderon's annual report] lists more than two dozen top-ranking or local drug bosses taken down since last September. The most significant were kingpins Arturo Beltran Leyva and Ignacio "Nacho" Coronel, both killed by Mexican troops.

The sudden spate of captures of high level operators from various competing groups begs attention as coincidence does not exist for an intel analyst. Always possible we say, but unlikely and only accepted after all other avenues have been exhausted. (And only accepted once as twice is a pattern.)

By leaking information to selected (or neutral) authorities, these groups, who are likely corrupt themselves but not a partner to the personages being surrendered, gain leverage and advantage without having to endanger themselves or make themselves a target for retribution.


As the arresting agency has been selected on the basis of their tolerance to, or payment by, the leaking criminal group, those agency members will get a handsome bonus for removing the leaker’s competitor.


We long ago dispensed with the DTO (drug trafficking organization) label as the binary fiction of criminal cartels against honest government has been replaced by what we define as criminal groups:


Corrupt groups comprised of traditional organized crime, corrupt state and federal police, corrupt military and corrupt politicians who compete against one another in a fluid Co-Opetition [cooperative competition] in which only those at the top of their game survive.


In this operational environment the 'intelligence' cited by various parties is very likely not coming from a single legitimate sovereign source but rather from a series of interested parties seeking to damage another of the parties.


There is a yet to be written analysis of intelligence and counter-intelligence operations of Mexican criminal groups against one another.


All data from Mexico is suspect

Mexican statistics, especially those regarding criminal matters, are supremely suspect. As Molloy has diligently noted regarding this WSJ comment:

"In 2009, there were 1,128 cases of kidnapping reported to Mexican authorities. But the real number of kidnappings is estimated to be many times higher by analysts. In May, Mexico was shocked when kidnappers grabbed Diego Fernandez de Ceballos, a lawyer and former presidential candidate who is considered to be the grand old man of President Felipe Calderón's PAN party. The whereabouts of Mr. Fernandez de Ceballos remain unknown."


I've spoken to Mexican scholars who analyze crime statistics and they will sometimes refer to the numbers on kidnapping and extortion as "la cifra negra" because these crimes are known to be severely under- reported. No one has a real basis from the available numbers to even speculate on the actual number of kidnappings, except that it is very high.

And in this comment on murder counts:

I am not sure why the EPTimes [El Paso Times] reports the August murder toll as 322 when Diario this morning reported 336. I think the discrepancy comes from the fact that Diario maintains their own tally and compares it with the reports they receive from the Procuraduria.  Reporters have told me that they get different numbers depending upon who they talk to in the state office on a given day.  In any case, the number of people murdered in August is the highest ever recorded for a single month in Juarez.

Suspect sources, suspect data and self-interested parties will continue to make reading a Mexican situation report a delicate task.


Mexico's crackdown on organized crime is working, Calderon says

In his state of the nation report, President Felipe Calderon notes the arrests or killings of drug kingpins and efforts to clean up police. He also touts job gains and other economic improvements.

By Ken Ellingwood

Los Angeles Times

September 2, 2010

Hell on Earth

The UN Documents Congo's Bloodbath

By Horand Knaup in Nairobi

Spiegel Online



Mexican drug lord Ignacio 'Nacho' Coronel killed by army

Leading figure in the Sinaloa cartel dies in shootout near Guadalajara

Jo Tuckman in Mexico City

The Guardian

30 July 2010


Mexican army kills kingpin in drug war coup

By Alberto Fajardo


Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:17pm EDT

July 29, 2010


Mexico's Army Kills Drug Chief Allied With Guzman, Signaling Calderon Win

By Jonathan Levin


Jul 29, 2010


Sedena confirma muerte de Nacho Coronel

La muerte del jefe del cártel de Sinaloa impactará en el funcionamiento y operación de ese grupo criminal, consideró el instituto armado

Francisco Gómez

Ciudad de MéxicoEl Universal

Jueves 29 de julio de 2010


Getaway for Mexican elite now cartel battleground


APApr 28, 3:47 pm ET


AP Exclusive: Sinaloa cartel takes Ciudad Juarez

By Alicia A. Caldwell And Mark Stevenson

Associated Press

Fri Apr 9, 2010 6:34 am ET


Mexico Holds Drug Suspect Accused of Grisly Tactics


New York Times

January 13, 2010


Mexico: Top drug cartel leader killed


17 Dec 2009


Gordon Housworth

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