The emerging Zeta Region
- Gordon Housworth [ 6/11/2011 - 00:06 ] #
First version of Zeta Region was originally
released at Frontera List, Wed, 6 Apr 2011 12:53:58 -0400
implications of Grann's A Murder Foretold* and Cirino's Latin America's
Lawless Areas and Failed States are part and parcel of why I pay attention to
the Zetas**, Zetas with gangs, Zetas in the Isthmus region, etc. Was in Guat
decades ago when the military intelligence and commando units were "draining
the sea" by day and the guerrillas were terrorizing those still alive by night.
The only worse mass horrors were Africa. (The Indios to this day are still
fodder for abuse, forced relocation and predation at will.)
unlike their criminal competitors
Zetas are unlike other criminal groups of interest; they think strategically in
a manner that I do not see in other cartels. A group of such vision is not one
to overlook the corrupt, cooperative partner at hand. Guatemala is already a
near-narcostate and almost went that way in a formal sense in a recent
Zetas are also positioned adjacent to, and in, Guatemala with the assets and
skills to exploit a cooperative partnership with Guatemalan establishment
the low end, the Zetas are already removing indigenous Guat drug competitors
while recruiting Guat nationals. The moneyed oligarchy at the top will provide
protection and influence for a price. See my earlier F-L note on Zetas now
being the superior force against a weak Guatemalan state.
emerging Zeta Region
are solidifying an arc from the Texas plazas south thru PEMEX and its illegal
oil bunkering bonanza, through Chiapas and into Alta Verapaz department of
Guatemala and its routes east to the Pan Am Highway and the Caribbean. (The
Zetas are sufficiently adroit to have also commenced an out-of-area op to stake
a position on the west coast (Colima, et al) to have access to inbound Chinese
weapons, meth precursors and other contraband.)
Zetas are forming cooperative partnerships with Latin gangs in the Central
American/Isthmus corridor, going so far as to train the more aggressive members
of what have long been described as hyperviolent gangs.
submit that the Zetas want nothing less than to solidify their control along
the Central American corridor.
control would enable the Zetas to achieve a chokehold on the Isthmus drug
pipeline, currently thought to be moving the largest percentage of cocaine into
Mexico and then onto the US and Canada.
Zetas will be able to control supply, either monopolizing and/or taxing
transport to other buyers.
is not unreasonable to suspect that other cartel groups understand the Zetas'
direction and looking at variations of planning a countermove, planning a shift
in allegiance or wondering how much time that they have given the changes
competing cartels achieve a heretofore absent operational grasp, or external
intervention backstops the remaining functional Guatemalan and Mexican assets,
I see little on the horizon to slow the Zetas' advance.
* Grann does not mention any specific cartel. What Grann's story brought out in
prose more gracious than mine was the corrupt nature of the Guatemalan
oligarchy in and out of government. Their willingness to buy and be bought is
touching in its completeness.
** The use of the term, Zetas, specifically refers to the airmobile commandos
that the US trained, that later went rogue, and became known as the Zetas. The
Zetas shifted from Praetorian Guard to cartel, appearing to lose none
of their operational focus in the bargain. In
contrast, other cartels increasingly draft younger unskilled recruits that
indiscriminately spray rounds. Bowden's sicario, among many others, makes this
point of rising unskilled assets. The Zeta organization of which I
speak is really remarkable, quite unlike the other cartels in so many ways. We subsequently trained the equivalent Kabiles in Guatemala that the Zetas are
now recruiting. We put structure and vision, tactics and strategy, into these
people. We made them; the blowback is severe.
the ultimate political conspiracy.
Reporter at Large
El Salvador fears Mexico drug cartel violence overflow - BBC
23 Dec 2010 13:05:42 -0500
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March 1, 2010
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Edited by Robert A. Donnelly and David A. Shirk
Bunkering in Mexico
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In Mexico Drug War, Sorting Good Guys From Bad
By MARC LACEY
New York Times
November 2, 2008
Mafia & Co.: The Criminal Networks in Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia
Juan Carlos Garzón
Translated by Kathy Ogle
The first edition of this book was published in June 2008 in Spanish.
This edition is an English language translation of the original.
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Threat analysis: Organized crime and narco-terrorism in Northern Mexico
By Gordon James Knowles
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El Salvador, Mexico, Jamaica, and Brazil.
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by Federico Breve, former Minister of Defense of Honduras
Are the Maras Overwhelming Governments in Central America?
Steven C. Boraz and Thomas C. Bruneau
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Latin America's Lawless Areas and Failed States
An Analysis of the "New Threats"
Julio A. Cirino, Silvana L. Elizondo, Goeffrey Wawro
CHAPTER ONE of:
Latin American Security Challenges
A Collaborative Inquiry from North and South
Paul D. Taylor, Editor
Senior Strategic Researcher, U.S. Naval War College
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NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
Newport, Rhode Island
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InfoT Public Infrastructure Defense Public Risk Containment and Pricing Public Strategic Risk Public Terrorism Public