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Operation IRAQI FREEDOM (OIF): analysis and prediction for a year-end After Action Report- Gordon Housworth [ 12/29/2004 - 09:05 ] # Numerology is replete with arbitrary belief in random numbers imbued with special significance, the end of a year, for example. Bowing to that tradition, this note commences a series on the Iraq war, more precisely Operation IRAQI FREEDOM (OIF), its prewar intel (for both WMD and Iraqi conditions on the ground) mission planning, administration response, TGW and TGR (Things Gone Wrong and Things Gone Right), current situation, possible next steps, and implications for the future. The US military outperforms many, if not most, commercial firms in its tradition of completing an After Action Report (AAR) to look for applicable lessons learned and to find out what can be done better. Most AARs are single loop learning, i.e., questioning performance against a largely fixed set of questions. Few are double loop learning, i.e., seeking to determine if the right questions are being asked. Time permitting; we will attempt some of the latter. The picture will not be an attractive one, the needed changes will be wrenching and likely rejected, the outcome - a loss already in progress - will be difficult to absorb, and an amelioration, if possible, will require some extraordinarily gifted diplomacy and geopolitical footwork to recover. Following are the principal citations for the series but others will doubtless find their way in: Blind Into Baghdad Out On The Street Army Historian Cites Lack of Postwar Plan Transition to and from Hostilities Center for Army Lessons Learned 26 May 2004 The Believer
What Can the U.S. Do in Iraq? Strengthening Iraqi Military and Security Forces The Developing Iraqi Insurgency: Status at End-2004 A hard week in a long Iraq mission Europe's Muslims May Be Headed Where the Marxists Went Before For Bush, Key Foreign Policy Goals Intersect Footage on Web Site Purports to Show Planning of Attack on U.S. Base in Mosul Attacks on Shiite Leaders Raise Fears of Sectarian Violence Gordon Housworth InfoT Public Risk Containment and Pricing Public Strategic Risk Public Terrorism Public |
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